There's much at stake in next year's Senate race

DAN JANISON
Newsday
 
April 9, 2009

Early scrambling in the 2010 race for the junior U.S. Senate seat - now occupied by Kirsten Gillibrand - offers the best glimpse of the clashing ambitions at work in the state Democratic Party's nervous ruling circles.

For her detractors, the road to ousting Gillibrand may run through Long Island, representing as it does an estimated 17 percent of the state and facing diminished clout within New York.

This marks a strange and volatile moment in state party politics overall.

Democrats occupy all five statewide elected posts and head the majorities of both legislative houses. Four of those seven officials, however, have a shaky rookie's hold on incumbency: Gillibrand along with Gov. David A. Paterson, titular head of the state party; Malcolm Smith, the State Senate's barely majority leader; Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, a legislative appointee.

With these power bases to be decided, next year's ballot has much more at stake than this year's. Congressional and legislative district lines will be drawn based on the 2010 census - during the terms of those elected by top Albany incumbents. The lines shape majorities and careers.

So for many Democrats, "dominant" or not, it is the year of governing anxiously.

Against that backdrop, Senate tremors have emanated from the ambitions of 10-year Rep. Steve Israel (D-Huntington), a potent fundraiser and strategist in House campaigns. Following his rejection by Paterson as successor to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Israel has met or consulted through intermediaries with others interested in challenging Gillibrand.

This week he said he has "been encouraged by more and more people across New York to take on a larger mission. With over a year and a half until the next election, I haven't ruled anything out."

Even allies note Israel may face some pressure to preserve his role in Congress. One consultant guessed that as a one-time "Blue Dog" Democrat he might not draw more instant enthusiasm than Gillibrand among more liberal-left New York City primary voters; Israel fans counter that the two have differed sharply on guns, immigration and gay rights.

Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola) - gun-control nemesis of the rifle-owning Gillibrand - broached a possible challenge unless someone else she could support ran a primary.

More recently, from Israel's backyard, came expressions of interest from Suffolk Legis. Jon Cooper (D-Huntington), an admitted underdog, who friends say has drawn encouragement within and outside the gay community. For Cooper, however, some see an alternate option: Seeking the 2nd Congressional District seat if Israel pursues the Senate.

Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) becomes part of the same landscape. Late last year, it was pointed out that King might have special motive to quit his seat and become the GOP candidate for Senate: A Democrat-dominated State Legislature might draw him an unfavorable congressional district.

One veteran Democratic consultant this week insisted that Gillibrand could be bolstered by winning a primary. That's debatable, given the fundraising drain and public bloodying it might entail. The well-connected consultant also argued that except in the state's most conservative pockets, King carries less of a chance than more "socially moderate" ex-Rep. Rick Lazio or ex-Gov. George Pataki.

New York City-based prospects on the Democratic side include: Jon Tasini, labor activist and 2006 Clinton primary challenger; Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, who recently met with Israel, and Congress members Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler of Manhattan, Jose Serrano of the Bronx and Nydia Velasquez of Brooklyn.

Given all the interest, the year of governing anxiously may give way to the year of living fractiously.