State redistricting's a slow-moving puzzle
 

Newsday
By Dan Janison
January 20, 2012

Only at a rare moment such as this would the retirement of an upstate congressman spark political guesswork on Long Island.

But Rep. Maurice Hinchey's announcement Thursday that he won't seek an 11th term in the House comes just as redistricting looms. And in the process of reshaping political maps, as occurs every 10 years, changes in one region have a potential domino effect in the rest of the state, as lawmakers wrestle over creating seats of approximately equal population.

Major parties work to protect their incumbents during redistricting. This year, New York's U.S. House delegation shrinks from 29 to 27 seats, increasing the potential musical-chairs effect.

The politically progressive Hinchey (D-Saugerties), 73, leaves the landscape after battling colon cancer, and a little more than a year after an uncomfortably close win against Republican challenger George Phillips. And so, the political viability of one senior delegation member has been removed from consideration in drawing the seats. As a result, Hinchey's 22nd Congressional District stands to be broken up, giving mapmakers more flexibility.

The change will affect other seats. "It's all like a puzzle in which one piece affects every other," said one Long Island political aide. "No one knows what is going to happen. In the spirit of what redistricting should be, the two seats should be lost upstate, where the population dropped. But that may be politically perilous."

In an email to supporters, Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) Thursday cited speculation that his 3rd District could be threatened. More likely to be targeted would be another downstate Republican congressman, such as first-term Michael Grimm of Staten Island or newbie Bob Turner in Queens and Brooklyn. "I will be closely monitoring this situation," King assured backers.

For some time, observers have expected that in reducing New York's delegation, the parties would agree to lose one currently Republican and one currently Democratic seat. But it is also possible that truly competitive seats could be created. King, who has his fans among Democrats, has not been among those considered most vulnerable in redistricting.

Before last year's implosion of Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-Forest Hills) in a sexting scandal, some said Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola) could end up in the same newly drawn district as Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights). Since then, however, the speculation has changed. McCarthy sounds determined to run for re-election. She has touted her fundraising as one sign of strength. Last year, she reported raising more than $300,000 just in the third quarter, and allies say her contributions have proceeded apace since then.

One consultant, who declined to be identified, said of redistricting, "The little changes you make in New York One [the 1st Congressional District] in Suffolk shift and slide all the way up. So if you move [Rep. Tim] Bishop up a little here or there, with the population growth in Suffolk, it affects Nassau, and bumps into Queens, and so on."

While anticipation and rumor build, mapping has yet to begin. Assemb. John McEneny (D-Albany), co-chairman of the Legislative Task Force on Demographic Research and Reapportionment, said Thursday that while proposed state legislative maps are expected to be published as early as Monday, the congressional lines remain weeks away. "Anybody who's close to the process is going to decline to speculate," McEneny said. "We don't even have a draft yet."